CS2 Case Opening Odds Calculator
See the real drop rates, probabilities, and expected value for CS2 case openings
Expected Loss Warning
On average, you will lose $8.51 (24.4% of investment) opening 10 cases. Case openings have negative expected value - the house always wins in the long run.
Note: Even with a 2.57% chance of getting a knife in 10 cases, that means there's still a 97.43% chance of getting NO knife at all.
Understanding CS2 Case Opening Odds
How Case Odds Work
Counter-Strike 2 case openings use a weighted random system where each rarity tier has a fixed drop rate. Valve officially disclosed these rates in 2023: Blue items drop ~79.92% of the time, while the coveted knife/glove special items have only a ~0.26% chance (roughly 1 in 385 cases).
Understanding these odds is crucial for making informed decisions about case openings. While the excitement of potentially unboxing an expensive knife is real, the mathematics guarantee that most players will lose money on average.
Official Drop Rates
- Mil-Spec (Blue): 79.92% (~1 in 1.25)
- Restricted (Purple): 15.98% (~1 in 6)
- Classified (Pink): 3.2% (~1 in 31)
- Covert (Red): 0.64% (~1 in 156)
- Special Item (Gold): 0.26% (~1 in 385)
Expected Value Facts
- Average case opening returns 40-60% of cost
- Expected loss is typically $1.50-2.50 per case
- Only rare knife pulls make openings profitable
- Older cases often have worse expected value
- StatTrak versions add small value increase
Why Use Our Case Odds Calculator?
- ✓Official Valve drop rates
- ✓Expected value calculations
- ✓Multiple case probability analysis
- ✓ROI and loss projections
- ✓Custom case price support
- ✓100% free, no registration required